《China''s Energy Dependence and Stabilizing Role in the Gulf and the Central Asia》
文章来源： 日期：2009-04-30
| 《China''s Energy Dependence and Stabilizing Role in the Gulf and the Central Asia》 | |||
| 作 者： | 杨光 | 完成时间： | 1998-1-1 |
| 成果形式： | 奖 项： | ||
| 课题类别： | |||
| 简 介： | China''s Energy Dependence and Stabilizing Role in the Gulf and the Central Asia by Professor Yang Guang Deputy Director-General of the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 1. A new reality: China has become a net importer of oil In China, oil is the energy which has seen its demand and the gap of internal supply grow most rapidly. The unbalanced growth of demand and supply has resulted in a continuously erosion of China''s oil exporting capacity and finally transformed this country from a net exporter into a net importer of oil products in 1992, and of crude oil in 1996. This critical change is due to raisons from both the demand side and the supply side, and looks irreversible until early next century. In the respect of the demand side, rapid economic growth is the most important factor which has been driving and will continue to drive the demand high. Generally speaking, the high demand of energy consumption has resulted from the rapid and sustained economic growth. From 1990 to 1995 for example, the Chinese annual GDP growth rate averaged 12 %. The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption shows that every 1% increase of GDP led to a 0.528% increase of oil consumption. More specifically speaking, several mains causes among others can be identified for the high demand of energy. First, from the viewpoint of the structure of production, as Chinese economy is taking off, energy intensive industries such as chemical and petro-chemical, metallurgical and building materials industries play an essential role for the industrialization. This phenomena is unlikely to change in short term. Second, the transportation sector which is usually the leading consumer of petroleum product in developed countries is also experiencing a very rapid development in China. From early 1980s to the mid 1990s for example, the number of vehicles for civil use in China increased by 4.6 times, while the consumption of petroleum products for transportation quadrupled. This tendency will continue too. Third, the per capita energy consumption is still very low in China. With its 664kg oil equivalent per capita energy consumption in 1994, China lags far behind not only the developed countries but also the developing countries'' average.1 Dialectically speaking however, in light of the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people''s living standard, the very large population and the low level of per capita energy consumption means that not only are there still tremendous rooms and potential for the expansion of energy consumption, but also it''s quite possible for this potential to be transformed into real demand. Forth, the economic take-off and the growth of per capita income is conductive to a structural change of energy consumption in favor of energies of quality and high efficiency such as oil, natural gas and electricity at the expense of coal and biological energies. This has been proved by the historical experience of many developed economies as well as by tiger economies and is occurring in China. This tendency is especially evident in the South-East coastal provinces which have experienced the most rapid economic growth. And that is why during the first half of 1990s the elasticity coefficient of oil consumption 0.528 was higher than the one of national energy consumption 0.458. This tendency is now further strengthened by the environmental concerns. Statistics indicate that the coal burning which accounts for 75% of China''s primary energy consumption is responsible for 85% of SO2, 70% of smoke and dust as well as 85% of CO2 that are drained off into the atmosphere. Therefore, in order to achieve the sustainable development strategy, the development of coal energy has to be brought under control. It is predicted that from 1995 to 2010, the primary energy consumption structure will see the coal reduce its percentage to 64% but the oil''s proportion increase from 17.3% to 19.4%.2 Natural gas, hydro-electricity and nuclear power will also expand their share, but will still remain marginal. So, despite of the energy options the China has, oil will occupy a even more important place early next century. Fifth, There is still a lot to do to increase the energy efficiency by developing and introducing relevant technologies as well as by getting the energy prices right. All the above-mentioned factors seem to be long term driving forces for China''s energy demand, especially of oil demand. On the supply side, Chinese oil industry is undergoing a period of transition as the Eastern oil fields, which were put into production between the 1950s and the 1970s and still account for the lion part of Chinese oil production, are expected to be gradually replaced by the newly discovered Western oil fields. However, China has now reached such a critical juncture that the Eastern oil fields'' production tends to be stabilized while it still takes time for the Western oil fields to be developed and substitute for them. In consequence, in contrast to the record high increase of oil demand, the growth rate of oil production has reached its record low. Between 1990 and 1995, the oil consumption grew at an average annual rate of 6.34%, while the oil production was only 1.64% higher each year. As the above-mentioned factors continue to work, the gap of internal oil demand and supply tends to be widening. It''s predicted that by the year 2010, the Chinese oil demand will reach 280 million tons, of which, only 180 million tons is expected to be self-sufficient. The net oil import of crude oil and oil products will have increased from 34.3 million tons in 1997 to 100 million tons, in other words 35.7% of Chinese oil consumption would have to depend on import by 2010.3 However, China''s oil import should not be exaggerated. Various estimations show that, by the year 2010, although China''s oil import will be higher in both its volume and its proportion in the world oil trade movements, it will represent only 2.3% of the world oil production. If we compare this figure with the 1997 net oil import volume of the United States and Japan, which reached respectively 442.7 million tons and 277.5 million tons, equivalent to 12.7% and 8% of the world production of the year, 4 Chinese oil import would look like what a Chinese idiom describes: it is so far behind that one can only see the dust of the riders ahead. 2. A paradox: diversification versus concentration As the gap of the internal oil demand and supply is widening and the external oil dependence tends to grow, China has responded in many fields in order to make its oil supply more secure, including diversifying its international sources of oil supply. So far this strategy has achieved significant success. In 1990, 81.5% of the Chinese oil import came from only 3 countries and only the Indonesian supply exceeded 1 million tons. In 1997 however, The number of countries which provided China with more than 2 million tons of oil increased to 6, including Oman 9.03 MT, Indonesia 6.59 MT,Yemen 4.06 MT, Angola3.84 MT, Iran 2.76 MT and Vietnam 1.42 MT. Besides, Congo, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Egypt and Malaysia also emerged as sources of oil supply for China.5 As part of the diversification strategy, Chinese oil companies began to conduct transnational operation in 1993. So far they have been successfully involved in oil exploration and development in many countries such as the United States, Canada, Peru, Sudan, Papua New Guinea and Venezuela. However, the progress of diversification could not conceal an opposite tendency which is taking form. That is, China''s oil dependence is increasingly concentrating on the Gulf countries. During the first 7 years of the 1990s, the volume of oil import from the Gulf region has been growing at a annually average rate of 46.7%, exceeding the 42.8% average growth rate of the total oil import. And the import volume has increased from 1.15 million tons to 16.78 million tons during the same period of time. In 1997, with the only exception of Bahrain, all the Gulf countries supplied oil to China. The Gulf oil exporting countries possesses two third of the world proven oil reserves and will occupy a more significant place in the international oil market by early 21st century. They also consider China an market with great potential from the view point of their long term market share strategy. So, China''s oil tie with the Gulf States would probably be even closer when we step into the new century. An other region which may probably become a promising source of oil supply for China in the future is the Central Asia. Although people are still unable to agree on the exact quantity of the oil reserves in this region, especially in the Caspian Sea, few people would doubt of its abundance. If the problems of capital investment and transportation can be resolved smoothly, this region would hopefully become an other important international source of oil supply and would even form part of the Gulf-Central Asia energy axis by early 21st century. The geographic proximity constitutes an unique advantage for Sino-Central Asian cooperation in the field of oil supply. The success of Chinese oil company in winning international bidding for Kazakhstan''s oil projects in 1997 marked the beginning of China''s oil cooperation in the Central Asia. 3. A continuity: China plays the role of stabilizer The growing dependence on the Gulf oil, and probably on the Central Asian oil too in the future, will naturally lead to an increasing concern of the peace and stability of these regions. This is especially understandable, as in fact, to a very large extend, all the 3 oil crises characterized by disruption of supply and price hike since the 1970s were triggered by regional political crises. However, as the new century is drawing near, these two regions are unfortunately still full of potential troubles. The Middle East is disturbed with deep-rooted religious and ethnic problems. The peace process has stagnated since 1996. The issues left over by the Gulf war has yet to be resolved. In addition, the dismal prospect of economic growth for the Gulf countries and the social cost of structural adjustment for the other Middle Eastern economies could only increase the political uncertainties of the region. As far as the Central Asia is concerned, many countries are suffering from ethnic and territorial disputes. The Caspian Sea countries differ on how to divide the shelf and how to distribute the natural resources of the Caspian Sea. The disagreement on the pipelines schemes are further complicated by geopolitical motives. These factors lay up troubles for the future. Therefore, it should be a common interest for countries of the regions and the oil importing countries to seek peace and stability, to resolve the conflicts and prevent new conflicts from happening. In fact, China''s policies towards the Middle East and the Central Asia reflect its internal priorities. During the past two decades, economic construction through reform and opening up constitutes China''s top priority. The most important objective that Chinese diplomacy pursuits is to create and maintain a peaceful international environment, so that the country can focus on its economic development and raise the living standard of its people. The emerging interest in expanding oil supply from these regions is completely compatible with the national top priority and the consistent objective that Chinese external policies pursuit. In regard with how to achieve peace and stability in these regions, in contrast to some Western approaches which stress the projection of forces nearby or in the Gulf, China has adopted its own ways on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and the means it possess, especially its UN security council permanent membership and its omnibearing friendly relations of mutual trust with countries of these regions. The major Middle Eastern issues are too complicated to be resolved by any solutions of one-sided wish. It seems any feasible solutions have to be based on a broad international efforts and mechanisms which involve efforts not only of the outside promoters but also the agreement and participation of countries of the region. This is especially true as the world is heading toward multipolarization. In this context, China has played its role for the peace and stability in the Middle East mainly in the framework of UN initiatives and international treaties. In regard with the chronic conflict between the Arabs and Israel, China considers the political settlement to be the only way of solution and supports the "land for peace" formula. A part from using its vote in the UN security council to uphold justice and promote the peace process, it also takes advantage of its relations of mutual trust with the countries concerned to give persuasions to the parties concerned. The establishment of official diplomatic tie with Israel in 1992 has enabled China to play a more balanced part in this regard. China has actively participated in the UN peace keeping efforts in this region by sending military observers to UNTSO, UNICOM and MINURSO. On the issues of Gulf security, China and the other members of the UN security council together worked out and adopted the resolution 598 in 1987 which was accepted by the belligerent parties and led to the cease-fire of Iran-Iraq war. As part of the joint efforts of the international society, China makes it clear that it''s against the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq and urges Iraq to comprehensively comply with all the UN security council resolutions concerned. Arm''s control is an important and sensitive issue for the stability of the region. The international treaties that China has acceded to and figures indicate that, China''s position on this issue is cautious, clear and responsible. As signatory state of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction CWC in 1993 and the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development , Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological Biological and Toxin weapons and on Their Destruction BWC in 1984, China has always stood for the complete prohibition and thorough destruction of Chemical weapons and biological weapons not only in the Middle East, but also all over the world. The complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons is the objective that China consistently pursuits and works for., since China acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons NPT in 1992. Regarding nuclear exports, China is quite cautious and responsible. It has pursued a policy of not supporting, encouraging or engaging in the proliferation of nuclear weapons and not assisting any other country to develop such weapons. In May 1996, China promised that it would not offer help to nuclear facilities which had not accepted the IAEA''s safeguards, including bans on exports of nuclear materials and personnel or technology exchanges and cooperation. In may 1997, the Chinese government published the Circular on Questions Pertaining to the Strict Implementation of China''s Nuclear Exports Policy, which explicitly stipulates that no nuclear materials , facilities or related technologies exported by China may be supplied to or used by nuclear facilities which have not accepted the IAEA''s safeguards. On June 10, 1998, China promulgated the Regulations on the Control of the Export of Dual-Use Nuclear Materials and Related Technology, imposing strict control on the export of nuclear-related dual-use materials and related technology. Although the Middle East is known to be the world largest weapon market for conventional military equipment, China''s involvement in this market is very limited in comparison with the leading military sellers such as the United States, Russia, France and the UK. Actually, China''s export of military products did not started until mid 1980s and its total annual export value has never exceeded 1 billion US dollars since late 1980s.6 China is also very cautious and responsible regarding the transfer of missiles, as it promised to observe the then guidelines and parameters of the Missile Technology Control Regime in February 1992. Peace and stability in the surrounding areas constitute one of the China''s most important strategic objectives. In order to achieve this objective, China is promoting a new concept of security which includes the concept of "mutual and equal security" and the one of "seeking security by building mutual trust and dialogue" etc. These concepts have been applied to its relations with the newly independent Central Asian countries and have made concrete and substantial progress. Through peaceful negotiations which led to the signing of several treaties between 1994 and 1998, the border issues with Kazakhstan have been basically settled. China, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyz, Russia and Tadzhikstan held two summit meetings respectively in April 1996 and in April 1997 during which two important agreements were signed. The first one is the "Agreement on Confidence-Building in the Military Field Along the Border Areas", in which the signatory states committed that military forces deployed in the border areas shall not be used to attack each other; each party shall refrain from staging military exercises directing against the other; there shall be restrictions on the military exercises in terms of scale, area and number of such exercises; all the important military activities of one party in the areas between the border and 100 kilometers from the border line shall be notified to the other which shall be invited to observe the troop exercises; etc. The second one is the "Agreement on Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas" , which stipulates that the five countries shall reduce their military forces in the border areas to the minimum level compatible with their friendly and good-neighborly relations, a level that shall not go beyond their defense needs. There is no doubt that the resolution of border issues between China and its North-Western neighboring countries as well as the establishment of a kind of friendly relation of mutual trust has contributed to and will continue to contribute to the peace and stability of the Central Asia. 4. Conclusion China has become a net oil importer. This is a new reality. This reality is building closer energy ties between China and the Gulf states, and probably between China and the Central Asian oil exporting countries too in the future. The emerging oil interests in these two regions is compatible with the objectives of China''s consistent policy and is unlikely to change its policy towards these regions. China will continue to play the role of stabilizer in the Middle East and Central Asia. Notes: 1"World Development Report 1997", Oxford University Press Inc. 1997 2"China''s Energy Development Report", Economic Management Publishing House, 1997 3"China''s Energy Development Report", Economic Management Publishing House, 1997. 4 Based on data released by "BP Statistical Review of World Energy", 1998. 5"Journal of International Petroleum Economics", №3, 1998. 6 These five principles are: mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other''s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. 7"People''s Daily", July 28, 1998 | ||
