CHINA’S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PRESENT AND FUTURE
文章来源： 日期：2009-04-30
| CHINA’S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PRESENT AND FUTURE | |||
| 作 者： | 张晓东 | 完成时间： | 1999-2-1 |
| 成果形式： | 论文,载[美]<中东政策>,0.53万字。 | 奖 项： | |
| 课题类别： | |||
| 简 介： | CHINA’S INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PRESENT AND FUTURE Xiaodong Zhang The earliest communication between China and the Middle East can be traced back to the Han Dynasty more than two thousand year ago. The P. R. China has been eager to develop friendly relations with the most countries in the Middle East since 1949. However, this neither reflects the essence of the Sino-Mideast relations, nor illustrates its trend in the future. The end of the Cold War and the Second Gulf War tremendously changed the placement of political forces in the Middle East, and made a new opportunity for the changes of international relations. With rapidly economic growth, it becomes inevitable for China to adjust its policy and interests in diplomatic relations. The issue I would like to discuss in this article is that how China should deal with the Middle East countries when the extremely unstable world is marching to the 21st century. 1. RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST: RETROSPECT AND COMMENT The Middle East has been the hottest spot in the international politics since the end of the World War II. Besides regional contradictions and conflicts, the confrontation and contention between two super powers shrouded whole area. The Middle East, to some extent for new China, was a faraway and unfamiliar place. The government and academia did not know and care nothing about the Middle East affairs, such as Arab-Israeli wars, White Revolution and Oil Embargo, etc., but the fact is that both the policy and impact of China in the Middle East were limited. The all that China can do was to stress that China, like most Middle East countries, had suffered colonialist and imperialist aggression and rule, and faced common tasks—to defend the integrity of territory and sovereignty after independence. In addition, China firmly supported the Palestinian and Arab in their struggle for liberation, which actually was the core of Chinese Middle Eastern policy in those years. As a positive response to this policy, Egypt became the first Middle East country to establish diplomatic relations with China in May of 1956. However, the cost was high to some extent that the monarchies that deeply hated Arab nationalism refused to admit new China for a long time, and China had to give up the chance to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. It’s not fortuitous that the embarrassing situation came into being. After the founding of the People’s Republic of China, it immediately met with the isolation and containment from the West headed by the United States. On the one hand, the United States continued to support the Kuomintang regime that had fled to Taiwan but tried to counterattack, and threatened the Northeast China by invading Korea, and set up military bases in some countries of the Southeast Asia, and formed anti-Communist alliance. For new China who must recover the economy destroyed by long-term war and face extremely urgent threats, it was unlikely to formulate an adequate Middle East policy. On the other hand, the United States and Britain knocked together another military alliance to contain the Soviet Union and the Communism in which many Middle East countries took part, which blocked the communication between China and the Middle East. In 1960s, China deeply fell into isolation and self-blockades with steady deterioration of the relations between China and the Soviet Union. In foreign relations, China tried to find allies in the third world while more imperatively appeal to ideology. In domestic dimension, ultra-Leftism ran rampant, which heavily influenced on the foreign policy, for instance, the refusal of the market economy and undue emphasis on self-reliance hindered from the development of foreign trade and economic relations. The year of 1978 is one of turn points in the modern Chinese history. Since then, China has begun to actively contact the outside world in a practical and open spirit, which means de-emphasis on ideology and laying stress on trade and economic exchanges. Yet the Middle East has been an extremely politicized region where both the United States and the Soviet Union tried to monopolize and control. Under the circumstance of fierce contention and confrontation between two super powers, the third political or economic force would not be welcome. During this period, China made efforts to establish diplomatic relations with the countries in the region, and obtained some economic opportunity, such as the export of labors and arms sale, but the Middle East still was on the periphery of China’s foreign agenda. On the most issues, China just expressed its position and attitude, but hardly affected their direction and process of changes. Even the trade and economic exchanges that China actively pushed forward, the progress was very limited. Until 1985, the total volume of trade was only f1.7 billion among China and the Middle East countries. 1 Normalization of Relations with Israel On January 9, 1950, the foreign minister of Israel sent Premier Zhou Enlai a telegram in which Israel announced to recognize the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China. Israel is the first country in the region to recognize new China. However, China rejected to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, simply because Israel supported by the U.S. occupied Arab territories, and China regarded support to Palestinian liberation cause as its own unshirkable duty. China’s diplomatic aims were to win the trust and friendship of the Arab and the third world, to cast off the isolation from the West and East bloc, and to set up an internationally united front against the imperialism and hegemonism. Unfortunately, until early 1970s, nine Arab countries still refused to recognize the PRC. With the reform and opening of China and the end of the Cold War, the ideological confrontation gradually weakened in the international relations and in the foreign policy of China on the one hand. On the other hand, both sides of Arab and Israel largely realized the significance to face reality after more than forty-year conflicts. As a result, it was undoubtedly logical that China established diplomatic relations with Israel on January 24, 1992. The normalization of China and Israel not only laid a solid foundation for further development of the relations between two countries, but also made it possible that China participates in and influences on the Middle East affairs. The mutual diplomatic recognition of two countries means the significant changes happened in the Middle East policy of China after the Cold War. 2 Promotion of Trade and Economic Relations with the Middle East Countries After 1978, sympathy with and support to the Arab causes has been and will be the main aspect of the Middle East policy of China, but the policy-makers increasingly understood the importance to promote the trade and economic cooperation with the whole region. The Middle East, as the oil supplier, obviously influences on the world economy. In addition, the Middle East is a huge market of labors, project contract, commerce and arms, and the GCC countries, as the owners of oil dollars, play a role in the financial market of the world. Therefore, expanding trade and economic linkages with the region gradually became an important subject which Chinese foreign policy-makers faced. However, it was not easy to enter into the market in the Middle East, partly because China had no diplomatic relations with some countries, and partly because the products from America, Europe and Japan had monopolized the market. The positive changes of Sino-Middle East relations at the turn of 1980s indicated that the bilateral economic cooperation was moving forward a new stage. First, till January of 1992, China had established diplomatic relations with all countries in the Middle East, which laid a solidly political foundation for mutual economic cooperation. Second, the progress of the Arab-Israeli peace process relaxed the regional tension by and largely, and the economic cooperation was placed on the regional agenda. In the opinion of China, participating in economic reconstruction and seeking for commercial opportunity in the Middle East would be helpful to economic growth of two sides and social stability in the region. Third, in 1993, China became a net importing country of petrochemical products. With the economic growth, the imported oil will increase largely, which means more economic linkages between China and Gulf. Forth, the high proportion of foreign trade in GNP displays the open level of the Chinese economy, but it also indicates that the economic growth heavily relies on the world market. Obviously, it will be significant for China to develop such potential market as the Middle East These new changes forcefully pushed the bilateral trade forward, for example, in 1993, the trade volume between China and the Middle East raised tof3,112 million excluding Iran, Turkey and Cyprus, increasing 40 percent comparing to the previous year among which, export was f1,892 million, and import f12,20 million. 3 More Active Participation in the Regional Affairs. After the Gulf War in 1991, the United States, as the sole super power, dominated over the Middle East. The American particularly satisfied with the advances in “strengthening the Gulf security and promoting the just and lasting peace between Arab and Israeli”1. However, the U.S. position is far from stable and uncontested. Besides the regional challenges, such as the radical Islamism, terrorism and complicated disputes, some Western countries try to express their voices on some issues. Even the Russian who had withdrawn from the Middle East prepares to return the region. Facing the complicated situations, China began to implement a positive policy in the Middle East. China is in favor of the peace process initiated by the United States and actively participation the multilateral talks in the regional security, water, refugee, and the other issues. Specifically, the regional economic cooperation aroused interest of China. From 1994 to 1997, China attended each annual economic conference of the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, China made known its own position on the arms control2, and declared and observed three principles of the weapons sales. 1 The purpose of weapons sales is to strengthen the self-defense of the importing countries, 2 but not to upset the regional balance, and 3 China will not intervene in the internal affairs of other countries by the weapons sales3. In recent years, China signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, promised to observe the Missile Technology Control Regime guidelines. It also ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention. China’s participating in the Middle East affairs and its sense of responsibility for global issues indicated that its self-confidence in diplomacy is steadily growing. I believe that it will contribute to strengthen the relations between China and the Middle East, and also to the power balance in the region. 4 Balanced Development of Relations with All Countries in the Middle East The persistent stand of China is to establish and develop friendly cooperative relations with every country on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which is the foundation of China’s foreign policy. However, the situation in practice is very complicated. The part of reasons, especially during the Cold War, is that the international relations are easy to be hurt by state or group interests, ideology and the other elements. In the Middle East, those countries that overthrew the colonialist or feudalism rulers were the first to establish the diplomatic relations with China. In this case, the similar experiences suffering from the oppression of the colonialism and imperialism and common goals maintaining independence and developing economy constituted the solid foundation for the relations among them. The other countries in the Middle East refused to admit China because of their following the U.S. or hating the nationalism and the communism. Meanwhile, it seemed that China rejected the Israeli request to establish diplomatic relations for ideological reason. Today, this type of diplomatic model during the Cold War is heading for its doom. As the most countries pay more attention to economic development, the choice of foreign strategy tends to be realistic and practical. China corrected the deviation of the Middle East policy. The first is to promote the relations with the region in an all-round way—politically, economically and culturally, and the second is to develop the relations with all countries, but to avoid involving in the regional disputes. 2. THE POSITION OF THE MIDDLE EAST IN CHINA’S FOREIGN STRATEGY In the foreign strategy of China, improving the relations with surrounding countries and strengthening the economic cooperation with the developed countries in America and Europe have been always occupied an important position. In comparison, the Middle East is located at the periphery of the strategy. As the 21st century approaches and China’s economy unavoidably links up with the world one, we have enough reasons to reappraise the strategic significance of the Middle East, and readjust the status and order of the Middle East policy in China’s foreign strategy. 1 GEOPOLITICAL FACTOR Geographically, only Afghanistan among the Middle East countries is adjacent to China. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan has nearly lost all its geographical significance. However, the rising of Taliban indicates that a new geopolitical competition has begun. Moreover, the collapse of the Soviet Union has aroused another crisis: the economy of the Central Asian countries is weak, and their future is obscure. Because they have much racial and religious ties with the northwest area of China, their future development will surely exert a major impact on the stability and security of the large northwest of China. The Central Asian countries, now devoid of the Russian dominance, urgently expect to receive selfless aids from those Middle East countries with which they have historical, cultural, racial and religious linkages. Many countries of the Middle East have launched sharp contest in the Central Asian with varying purposes. Meanwhile, rich oil and mineral resources in some Central Asian countries have already become a target pursued by many powers. Political and economic cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries must occur without delay. Thus, the advantages and disadvantages of the Middle East to China, through the Central Asia, have become very clear. On the other hand, the concept and image of a greater Middle East that includes the Western Asia and the Central Asia seems probable. To work out or implement such a policy, one cannot separate from two regions. 2 ISLAMIC FACTOR Islam exercises at least influence on the change of international relations in two dimensions. On the one hand, the Muslims account for about 1 billion of the total world population and mainly living in the long arch area of North Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia. This area covers some important hubs of communication, strategic locations, major producing and exporting countries and the region with the most vitality in today’s world. Thus, the Muslim countries constitute an important force with impact on the international situation. On the other hand, some countries in the Muslim world are full of poverty, backwardness, war and corruption, and their future developments are not certain. Especially the prevalence of so-called Islamic Fundamentalism has greatly pounded away at the regional stability. Many Western scholars and governmental officials even believe that the Islamic Fundamentalism already constitutes the main threat against the West after Communism. China is a big country and a big third-world country. It cannot ignore the existence and influence of the Muslim states, and cannot have their sympathy and support in the international affairs. In addition, China has ten Muslim minorities with a population of 17 million. The Islamic religious and political ideologies from the Middle East and Central Asia often influence on the Muslims in China. If the religious ideologies integrate with the minority separatism, it will be a great challenge to the social stability and economic development in Northwest China. Therefore, in both international and internal affairs, Islam challenges Chinese policy-making and academic circles. In the face of a complicated and changeable international situation, China must soberly consider and work out a strategy and policy to deal with the key area of Islam—the Middle East. 3 Oil Factor China is a big oil-producing country, but it is also a big oil consumer. With the further growth of the economy, China’s demand for oil will increase by a big margin. In contrast to this, the oil output of China will gradually decrease. The present oilfields, such as Daqing, Shengli and Liaohe, are drying up. From a long perspective, the sea oilfield along the southeastern coast and newly discovered desert oilfield offer much hope, but they cannot quickly meet the oil demand due to a late start, backward technology, the need for huge funds. According to the most optimistic estimate, in 2000 the gap between oil supply and demand will amount to over 20 million tons. Therefore, in the future 10 years or longer China will have to alleviate a serious energy crisis by depending on oil imports. In 1993 China first time became an importing country of the petrochemical products, and in 1996, it became an importing country of the crude oil. In recent years, China has expanded international cooperation in the oil field, attempting to diversify its energy sources. However, the oil from the Middle East has outstripped a half of total oil imports 1996, reaching to 53 percent. It seems that the oil of the Middle East has become a major resource to meet China’s demand. Meanwhile, as a big country with 1.2 billion populations, China must consider its state and national long interests. Before large-scale usage of replaceable energy, how to use cheap energy on the international market, and protect domestic energy is a subject we must face. Considering that China’s oil resources will dry up before and after 2025, and in view of present and long-term development, the strategy for developing oil and gas resources in the Middle East and Central Asia should occupy a top priority on the agenda. 4 Economic and Political Security Factor Basically, the “openness” of China means mainly to open up to the West. Funds, technology and market and management experience from the Western countries heavily influence on the success or failure of China’s modernization. In economic exchange with China, some Western countries expect that political change will naturally occur in China. On the other hand, they often use economic or non-economic means to directly interfere with China’s development process. Although China’s relations with the Western countries are interdependent, China is often in a passive and unfavorable position in exchange with the Western countries due to its technical backwardness and lack of investment funds. The Western countries still control the most international agencies, especially those dealing with economy, trade and finance. They work out the rules of the game and decide the agenda. They even impose their own wishes on other countries and frequently threaten with economic sanction and trade blockade. These actions adopted by some Western countries have constituted a big threat and challenge toward China’s economic and political security. With the economy quickly increasing in recent years, a “concept of Chinese threat” has spread. Various signs show that the United States and other Western countries seem to encourage this hostility toward China to contain its development. The presidents of China and the United States have reached extensive consensus on the Sino-US relations oriented to the 21st century in their inter-visit, however, major differences between them still exist, and anti-China force on the Capital Hill and within the United States is strong. Therefore, it is predictable that the Sino-US relations will sometimes improve and sometimes meet with setbacks. In the face of this situation, China needs to reappraise the international environment, and reconsider its foreign strategy including its strategy toward the Middle East. Considering the position of the Middle East in the US global strategy and the great potential of the Middle East in cooperation with China in the energy, trade, financial and investment fields, a more active and progressive policy on the Middle East will surely expand the exchange and cooperative field between China and the United States, and effectively improve the economic and political security of China. 1 Economic Cooperative Factor The constant progress of the Arab-Israeli peace process has brought hope for the economic development and cooperation in the Middle East, and regional economic cooperation has already been put on the agenda. In current international affairs, the Middle East is inherently a region in which it is easy to arouse controversy. When economic cooperation in the Middle East merely was possible, the dispute of the international community had already appeared. The United States dominated the Middle East peace process, and it certainly attempts to dominate the regionally economic cooperation. Europe considered that it couldn’t invest but non-benefit. It must get its due opportunity in the Middle East economic cooperation, and gain due share in dividing the bonus of peace in the Middle East. As a result, soon after the first economic summit conference of the Middle East and North Africa held in Casablanca, Europe put forward a proposal on the economic cooperation around the Mediterranean area. The dispute between Europe and the United States shows that the key strategic position of the Middle East has not yet decreased as the end of the Cold War. On the contrary, the Middle East seems to be more important than ever before because of the replacement of the political forces and appearance of potential economic opportunity. The countries in the Middle East are conducting economic reform to different degrees. The reorganization of their national economies, readjustment of industrial structure and gradual opening of commodity markets provides a rare opportunity for Chinese enterprises. It opens a broad prospect for China and the Middle East to cooperate in the field of energy, desert agriculture, oil and petrochemical industry. Meanwhile, it provides a new channel for China to strengthen economic ties with the European countries, because the Middle East market is near to Europe, and some countries of the South Mediterranean have signed a free trade agreement with the EU. 3. CHINA AND THE MIDDLE EAST: COMMENTS AND PROPOSAL ON RELEVANT ISSUES All the signs show that the Middle East economy, society and international relations and the Middle East policies of big powers have entered into a period of readjustment. The academia and government of China must take the opportunity and work out a Middle East strategy into the 21th century. In my opinion, China at least should adopt a more progressive attitude and play a constructive role in the following issues. 1 Peace Process of the Middle East Appearances indicate that the Middle East peace process is in a deadlock simply because of Netanyahu’s stubborn stand and the US partiality toward Israel. In fact, there are some very real reasons remained for the deadlock. First, the Oslo Accord was made under duress. At that time, Israel was strong and the Arab countries were weak. Palestine sacrificed its national right it should have according to the relevant UN resolutions. One party was arrogant, attempted to gain what it wanted and another party swallowed an insult and is unable to retreat. Under such circumstances, the peace is doomed to be uncertain and meet with setbacks. Second, the Oslo peace was based on the following hypothesis: the limited progress made in secondary issues would create a good working atmosphere, lead to mutual recognition and lay down the foundation for the final negotiations. Then, we can see that, nearly from the beginning, both sides of the Arab and the Israeli have quarreled over the implementation details of the Oslo Accord. Each argument has poisoned the positive atmosphere of continuing negotiations. However, the basic purpose of the Oslo Accord was realized: Palestine and Israel recognized each other, and nobody wants to shut down the door of negotiation. In another words, the Oslo style has reached the limit and resolved all the issues that it can. Meanwhile its inherent deficiency revealed. It is time for the Arab-Israeli peace to seek new inspiration. China maintains good relations with the Arab countries and Israel, and it does not challenge the US position of monopoly in the Middle East peace process. Furthermore, China’s interests are not impacted if the Middle East peace continues or discontinues. China should be more constructively involved in the Middle East peace process with an aloof stand. I believe that it will demonstrates the ability of China, as a permanent member of UN Security Council, to undertake the responsibility and duty for the international affairs concerned, and also effectively enhance its role and influence in the international community. It is not realistic for China to play a decisive role in the peace process, but effective participation will greatly enrich China’s diplomatic resources. 2 Islamism and Terrorism Islamism is an important force either in domestic politics of the Middle East countries or in the regional and international affairs. Generally speaking, Islamism is the response of Islam to the Western aggression and suppression, the reaction to the secularism and modernization for which most Muslim states blindly seek, and the call for traditional values and identity which the Muslims had lost in rapidly social change. Obviously, there is no essential difference comparing with cultural or religious revival and value reconfirmation happened under other human and social circumstances. However, because many terrorist organizations in the Middle East hold up the banner of Islam, Islamism and terrorism actually become two faces of one coin in media and in the eyes of the mass, especially in the deep minds of some Western policy-makers. In its foreign policy, particularly in its Middle East policy, China should definitely declare differences between Islamism and terrorism, and take a more active attitude toward opposing terrorism, including that which claims to defend state interests and security. China must participate in anti-terrorist cooperation and exchange among the international community. The benefits are obvious. First, this would help remove misunderstanding of some countries toward China’s promotion of cooperation with the Islamic states. Second, it would prevent some countries from adopting state terrorism under the pretext of defending national security. Third, it would be help to expand the cooperation with the international community and open a new channel of dialogue with relevant countries. Fourth, the more important is that it will create a good atmosphere for China to crack down on the activities which separates the country and propagates extremely religious or ethnic hostility. Internationally, strikes at terrorism will be easier to understand and accept than attacking national separatist and extremely religious activities. 3 Security and Stability in the Gulf To ensure security and stability in the Gulf area after the second Gulf war, the United States established a military alliance with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait while maintaining its military existence in the Middle East. At the same time, the United States encouraged the Arab countries in the region to engage in the arms expansion and form alliance to protect them. In addition, the United States also drew the strongest Arab countries, Egypt and Syria, into this security structure. In the international community, the United States tried its best to preserve the alliance against Iraq formed in the Gulf War, attempting to completely remove the threat to the Gulf from Iran and Iraq through the international blockade and economic sanction. That is so called the policy of “dual containment”. For a few years, the United State has resorted to every conceivable means to contain Iran and Iraq. However, the United States has being paid a price for the deficiency of its Middle East policy, and the security structure painstakingly developed by the US also has been on the verge of dissolution, since 1997. The ceasing of the Middle East peace process hardly encourages the Arab countries to accept its strong policy toward Iraq; The United States energetically promoted the military alliance of Israel and Turkey, but this also promote the crosswise unity among some Middle East countries; The greater challenge comes from Iran. The opposition from France, Russia and Germany made the D’Amato Act a laughingstock. If the new Iranian president becomes reconciled with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the others, the containment to Iran and Iraq will collapse. It is not surprising that the US security strategy in the Middle East will gradually fail. One of the important reasons is that Iran perplexes the US. There would be no real security and stability without participation of Iran, but if accepting Iran that cannot take orders from the US, it would be difficult for the US to realize the purpose to control and monopolize the Gulf affairs. A really stable Gulf undoubtedly conforms to the interests of China and all other countries. Iran is key to the Gulf’s security and stability, a major door to the Central Asia, and an important oil hub for the Central Asia. China must strengthen the economic and political ties with Iran. As an organic component of its policy toward Iran, China should also promote and mediate Iran’s relations with its neighboring countries, particularly the relations with the Arab countries, helping them give up old scores and re-establish friendships. China even should include the improvement of Iranian-US relations into its foreign strategic perspective. The stability of the Gulf area will occur only if completely reconciliation comes into being and a security structure accepted by all the parties is built up. 4 Economic Cooperation of the Middle East From the current situation, the vista of economic cooperation in the Middle East is obscure. The main Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria boycotted the latest economic conference of the Middle East and North Africa held in Doha. The economic cooperation among the Arab countries has also met with many obstacles. In 1964, the Arab countries began to work for the establishment of the common market, but they have not achieved any results yet. The Gulf Cooperation Council set up in 1981 is today quarreling over the integrated tariff. However, we cannot ignore the positive changes happened in the economic cooperation of the region. The economic development will unavoidably link up the economy of the Middle East with the world economy. While promoting an economic multiple strategy, the Gulf oil-exporting countries are transferring investment funds for the petrochemical industry into the Asia-Pacific region, which urgently needs investment and petrochemical products. As for China, the trend of the economic development in the Middle East poses a huge commercial opportunity. The exploration and exploitation of China’s land and marine oil have opened up to foreign countries. Many sectors, such as oil transportation, construction of storage facilities, and reorganization and extension of refining facilities and petrochemical industry are listed in catalogues that guide foreign businessmen’s investment. These sectors are recognized by and identical with the development strategies of the GCC states. We really believe that the cooperation in the oil and chemical industries will effectively promote a quick increase of Sino-Arab trade and investment. In addition, strengthening economic and trade ties with Israel should be a top priority in China’s economic and trade strategy toward the Middle East. Israeli high-efficient agriculture, advanced irrigation technology and desert exploitation will be of significance for China, and the high-tech industries and the high level of R&D of Israel also enjoy international prestige. Obviously, there must be a bright future for the exchange and cooperation in science and technology between China and Israel. 4. CONCLUSION The drastic change in the Middle East provides a good opportunity for China to participate in the Middle East affairs with more progressive and active attitude. At the same time a high-speed growth of the economy objectively requires China to work out a foreign strategy toward the Middle East concerning the future. The aim of such a strategy is very clear, that is to strengthen political and economic cooperation between China and the Middle East, improve China’s international environment, and along with the international community, build a new Middle East with stability, peace and security. | ||
