New Millennium Retrospection: Geopolitical Changes in the Western Regions and Security of China
文章来源： 日期：2009-04-30
| New Millennium Retrospection: Geopolitical Changes in the Western Regions and Security of China | |||
| 作 者： | 张晓东 | 完成时间： | 2000-1-16 |
| 成果形式： | 论文,0.77万字. | 奖 项： | |
| 课题类别： | |||
| 简 介： | New Millennium Retrospection: Geopolitical Changes in the Western Regions and Security of China Dongfang Xiao Introduction The first time I got to know “the Western Regions” was at the end of the 1970’s, when I took the first College Entrance Examinations after the “Cultural Revolution” and had to stuff my head with a jumble of things that I had never heard of. At that time, “the Western Regions” was a geographical name in history that I had to remember. Later, when I studied in the History Department in a university, more and more information about the Western Regions began to accumulate in my mind: Qin’s Moon and Han’s Pass, the exotic pipe and flute, the shining spears and armored horses, the single column of smoke and the setting sun…and also messengers in Han and monks in Tang Dynasty who were trekking in the flying sand as well as the indefatigable camel train and trade caravan. Nevertheless, the Western Regions were still remote and obscure, and the great spatio-temporal vicissitude had sealed it inside the vast accumulation of historical data. However, from the 1990’s, the image of the Western Regions gradually began to become clearer and more concrete in the depth of my mind. First, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a large number of ethical nations have mushroomed in Asian hinterland, a place that is customarily called Central Asia and Transcaucasia. Soon a region that is closely related in geopolitics, security, religion, ethnics, culture and economy looms into our view. For such a larger area that includes West Asia, Central Asia, the Caucasus and parts of South Asia, only the name “Western Regions” can embrace it all. Second, bordering Chinese Xinjiang and Tibet of our country, this region not only affects our national security and stability of the Great Northwest, but also relates to the development of the West of China, as well as the economic development of China as a whole in 21st century. Here only the word “Western Regions” can evoke our grand sense of honor and sense of crisis. The region must be recognized de novo and the influences of the changes in this region on our country must be understood. All of these constitute the main motives of my retrospection on the Western Regions please forgive my using a word that had been already forgotten for over 100 years at the turn of two millenniums. The geopolitical changes of the Western Regions since the end of the Cold War In the vast expanse of the Western Regions, the end of the Cold War was mainly symbolized by a series of great historical events, such as the Soviet troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Gulf War, progress in peace talks in the Middle East and the successive independence of the countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia. These events have not only changed the balance of power, broken the Cold War set-up formed since the World War II, but also ignited momentous rearrangements in geopolitics in this region in over 100 years. First, due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russian influence in Central and West Asia has shrunk on all fronts. From the planned large-scale expansion 1700 of Peter the Great to the annexation of Crimea, Caucasus, Central Asia and so on into the domain of Tsarist Russia Russians entered Pamir in 1891 , it took the Russians about 190 years. After the October Revolution, the Soviet Union not only inherited the territory of the Tsarist Russia but also gradually picked up the external policy in Asia. In order to compete for supremacy with the USA as well as break the encompassment of the USA in the south wing, the Soviet Union took as its main pivot attaining the access to the Indian Ocean, snatching strategic points and achieving the advantage in geopolitical competition. In its heyday, the Soviet Union had set up military bases in African Horn and South Yemen, and maintained close ties with some radical Arab countries such as Syria and Libya. From the mid of the 1980’s, under the leadership of Gorbachev, the country undertook a general political and economic reform, which, more like a disaster than a reform to the whole nation and the people, solved none of the substantial problems that the country faced at home and abroad, and instead caused the worst chaos in economic order and ultimate disintegration of the Union. However, this was good news for the USA, the western camp and those countries that had been under the Russian threat in the past 100-odd years. Through the Gulf War in 1990-1991, the USA not only realized its military existence in the Gulf Arab countries, but also established its dominance in the whole Middle East, in other words, it is impossible to solve any problems in Middle East without the active involvement of the USA, while the Soviet Union its heir Russia as well turned into an on-looker of Middle East affairs and an endorser of American scheme. In the north of Middle East, countries such as Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, which had been under the tight Russian pressure in the past 100 odd years, may slightly relieve the taut nerve at last. The Soviet troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the successive independence of three nations in Transcaucasia and five in Central Asia not only drove the threat further North for several hundred and even over one thousand kilometers, but also provided these countries with broad space to exert greater influence in regional politics. Second, an immense political vacuum appeared in the hinterland of Asia. No matter how the 100-odd-year conquest of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union in Central Asia and Transcaucasia is evaluated, a fundamental fact is that the successive independence of the three nations in Transcaucasia and the five nations in Central Asia essentially presupposes a total renunciation of the Soviet politics, economics, social system, culture and ideology. In view of this, the so-called political vacuum is represented in the thorough “non-Sovietization” and “non-Russianization” in the nations of Central Asia and Transcaucasia. In the next place, due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, in an instant, Central Asia and Transcaucasia turned from being a Russian exclusive domain into a “derelict enclave” in international politics—no effective influence from any international and regional political powers fell upon this region, and these nations themselves are standing in bewilderment, unable to ascertain their identity and future. Just like those nations that have experienced ethnic migration or suffered foreign invasion, the ethnic nations have to make a settlement about the past and a choice about the future. Put it another way, the future politics, economy and society of these countries characterize great uncertainty and plasticity. Whatever choices are ultimately made the consequential influence upon the peripheral countries in particular will be extremely immense. As a result, nearly at the same time of these countries’ independence, a geopolitical competition mainly with the aim to affect the orientation of the countries in Central Asia and Transcaucasia began to unfold. Turkey, which is close to Central Asia and Transcaucasia in language as well in ethnicity, aspires to establish a Turkish community stretching from Adriatic Sea to the Great Wall of China. The interests that Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and others are pursuing contradict each other to a great extent, but all of them aspire to restore and reconstruct the Islamic features in this region. While the USA and other western countries take it as a matter of course that after casting off the shackles of the Russians that had tied them as long as over one hundred years, the countries in Central Asia will “throw themselves into the arms of the western-colored freedom and democracy without hesitation,” and therefore, their main goals are to “promote democracy”, “establish liberalistic economy” and “help this region merge with international society” and so on. To a great extent, the important strategic position of this region, the abundant petroleum and gas resource in the area of Caspian Sea further stimulate the desire and enthusiasm of all kinds of powers to fill up the political vacuum. To achieve its strategic aim, the USA not only is planning to compromise with Iran, but also does not stint to make use of “Taliban”, an Islamic extremist organization, to open up the passage to Central Asia by way of Afghanistan. The Japanese lay special emphasis on “seizing opportunity to peek Chinese and Russians from their back,” besides their “resource diplomacy” and attempt to avoid “a gap in politics and economy” in Central Asia. Third, power integration that crosses regional boundaries. In the 2000 years prior to the mist of 18th century, the political, economic and cultural communications among the people in the expansive region that we call Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia were probably far more complicated and frequent than what we know. Comparatively the artificial obstruction brought forth by the Russian conquest on the regions of Central Asia and Transcaucasia lasted for only one hundred years, which might not cause much damage upon the longstanding historical connections. It must be seen, however, that the recent 100 odd years is a period that characterized not only the rapid growth in economy and technologies in human history, but also extreme clashes in ideologies and national interests, all of which, on one hand, had made an immense difference in material well-being, on the other hand, continuously widened the gap in spiritual and political life. It should be specially noted that, as a result of the formation of the two great camps East and West and the breakout of the Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union after World War II, all the differences and gaps became widened. The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union removed the artificial barrier in the communications of various regions, and also provided possibility for other international and regional powers to exercise their influence. At the same time, the general emphasis of every country on acceleration of economic development and improving people’s living standard produced sustained stimulation for the integration of cross-regional powers. The first kind of power integration in the Western Regions is the whole-scale expansion of Islamic influence. On one hand, as part of the traditional Islamic world, the region of Central Asia is covered with futile soil for Islamic revival; on the other hand, a large number of Muslim countries represented by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran and others add fuel to the fire for the revival of Islam in Central Asia by means of investment, religious donation, sponsorship for pilgrimage and cultural exchange. With the very help from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries, Central Asian countries successively joined in the “Organization of the Islamic Conference” OIC , thus accomplished the return to Islam on the official level. In the meanwhile, under all kinds of influence inside and outside, the religious enthusiasm of the general public in this region is continuously surging, and also Islamism gradually became an effective weapon of quite a few political oppositions. The second kind of power integration in the Western Regions is the Pan-Turkism mainly promoted by Turkey. Making use of the ethnic and language relations as well as the eagerness of Central Asian countries in search of a new developing course and to accomplish “non-Russianization” at the beginning of their independence, through studied highlight on the advantages of unreligious model and Turkish characteristics, Turkey pushes ahead actively the relations with Central Asian countries in all fields, established and held “Turkish Summit Conference”. It is not so easy to establish a “Turkish Community”, “Great Turkistan” or any other Pan-Turkey entity, but the geopolitical shift engendered in the whole Western Regions by such activities and its influence upon Xinjiang in our Country can never be neglected. The third kind of power integration is probably the most significant, which also faces the most problems, that is the economic cooperation of the whole region. In 1992, “Economic Cooperation Organization” ECO, formed in 1985 initiated by the three countries of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan was expanded to include the five Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan, thus the regional economic operation stretching over Central Asia, Transcaucasia and the north part of Middle East formally started. In spite of the summit conferences held in the few ensuing years and quite a number of agreements reached in the fields of bank establishment and infrastructure improvement, few of them have really been put into practice. The activities of ECO have virtually stopped, especially when Turkey and Iran placed more attention respectively on “Black Sea Economic Cooperation Association” BSECA and “Caspian Sea Users”, two organizations centered on each of them. Fourth, the cross of Eurasian continent. Prior to Russians’ complete control over Central Asia and Caucasia, this region, which constitutes the core of Eurasian continent, had played a unique role in the whole ancient world. For one thing, the “Silk Road” leading to the west from China went through this region, the cities on the way were not only the distributing centers of all kinds of goods, but also posts that maintained the security and smoothness of transportation; for the other, this region was also the only passage and bridgehead for the nomadic ethnic nations in the north of Asia to go down to Mesopotamia, Iran and India. Of course, not all of those who were trudging along the “Silk Road” were traveling merchants, not all of those who were galloping on the Central Asian prairie and in the harsh desert were the cavalry of the barbarian ethnic groups, the region of Central Asia and Caucasia had in fact grew into a cross where politics, economics and culture of a few cultural areas on the ancient Eurasian continent converged and interacted. As Rene Grousset, a French scholar, described in his monumental work The Empire of the Steppes: A History of Central Asia, “along this road, trade was going on and religions were spreading; along this road, came the Greek arts of the Alexandrian successors and the people who preached Buddhism from Afghanistan. From this road, Greek-Roman merchants went to and tried to take control of Saraga a name used by Ptolemaeus to refer to Luoyang, which he also called Thinae—author’s note, a place Ptolemaeus had mentioned to be plentiful with silk, and the generals in Eastern Han Dynasty of China had ventured to establish communications with Iranian world and the east part of Roman Empire.” In the 1990’s, being out of the view of the world politics and international communications for over one hundred years, the region of Central Asia and Caucasia once again resumed its geographic advantage of linking the continents of Europe and Asia. Suppose that the increasing globalization tendency is taken into consideration, its geopolitical advantage will probably be far more prominent than what it had been. Obviously the leaders of Central Asian countries and strategists have realized the close tie between the geopolitical advantage and the future development of their countries. “As a result, all countries have eagerly declared their desires one after another to become the new ‘tie’ and bridge.” Of course their performing capability have been seriously hindered by the underdeveloped economy, fragile infrastructure, complicated religious and ethnic conflicts, but their potential advantages in geography, strategy and even economics cannot be indiscreetly brushed aside. This might be the important reason that Russian reestablishes its existence in the region of Central Asia and Caucasia and the USA, European Union and NATO actively involve in the affairs here. II. The Western Regions and the national security of China Backing against Eurasian hinterland and bordering on the Pacific Ocean in the east, since ancient times, China had been troubled by the invasion of the nomadic ethnic nations in the north and northwest in the past feudalist dynasties. Hun in Qin-Han Dynasty, Turk in the period of Sui-Tang, the northern chaos caused by war in the Five Dynasties, the confrontation between Northern Song and Nuzhen, and later, the successive entrance and hosting Central Plains of Mongolians and Manchurians, all of these accounted for such a simple fact: the southward invasion of the nomadic ethnic nations had been the major threat against the external security of the past dynasties, and the rock-firm Great Wall that have been standing for hundreds and thousands of years vividly interpreted China’s focus and main orientation in security. With the establishment of the western marine hegemony and the rise of capitalism, the main threat against the security of China shifted from the land to the sea. During the 110 years from the Opium War in 1840 to the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, there had been numerous invasive wars against China launched from sea, and three times China’s capital had been captured and ransacked: in 1860, the Allied Armies of Britain and France burnt Yuanming Garden; in 1900, the Eight-Power Allied Forces occupied Beijing; and in 1938, Japanese Devils had a blood bath in Nanjing. It should be noted that even in this period, threats from the north and northwest had by no means subsided. During the very period the territory and borders in the depth of the continent had undergone tremendous changes, from which the threat had not been felt until the 1960’s—1970’s: from the utmost eastern part of the Wusuli River to the Pamirs in the west extremity, China was half enveloped by the Soviet Union from north to west, the three provinces in the northeast, base of China’s heavy industry, were between the hammer and the anvil, and even Beijing, the capital, was within the range of a lightning war. Fundamentally, by 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the threats from the west and north had generally undergone two stages. The first stage generally started from 221 BC and ended in the midst of 19th century, and during this period the main threat against China came from the regular invasion of the northern nomadic ethnic nations: when the central dynasties were comparatively strong, the invasion caused no more than wars in successive years in the northwestern frontiers; when the central dynasties were vulnerable, the whole northern regions would be involved in chaos of war and even the foreign ethnical occupation of the Central Plains. Fortunately, although the well-developed civilization in the Central Plains “had been conquered, yet in the end, it conquered the barbaric and uncivilized victors by inebriating and doping them, and ultimately wiped them out.” From the midst of 19th century, the threat against security from the northwestern had undertaken substantial changes. First, Russians replaced the nomadic nations and became the main invaders in the northern frontiers, for the expansion of territory cast a spell over the Tsarist Russia; second, either in the period of Tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union, the reigning groups were frequently under strong fanatical impulses to launch large-scale invasion and military strike against China; and third, unlike the regular southward invasion of the nomadic nations and fluky molestations in history, Russian pressure against the security of China had been overwhelming and long-lasting. The disintegration of the Soviet Union in December of 1991 and the successive independence of the Central Asian countries marked the dawning of a new era in which the security environment in the west and north of China would undergo great changes. Optimistically the disintegration of the Soviet Union relieved China the most intensive military pressure along the continental border, and in the foreseeable future, there will be no threat of large-scale military invasion in the north and west of China and even the possibility of border clashes also dropped to the lowest point in history, for China has not only solved the majority of border issues with Russia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and other countries, but also got to a common view through dialogue and negotiation au pair about border disarmament and reliance establishment, and “the Shanghai Five” in particular, has become a cooperative paradigm in the security field of international society. Nevertheless, it should not be neglected that the security in the west and north of China still faces serious uncertainties. The first is related to Islamic extremism and ethnic separatism. Viewed from the whole, the international and regional environments since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 are propitious to the promulgation of Islamic extremist and ethnic separatist thoughts. From the international perspective, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the frustration that socialism suffered have not only provided broad space for the overflowing of all kinds of political and religious trends of thoughts, but also facilitated their natural justification: as long as they are trying to shake off the Russian control and influence and oppose the Soviet political and economic pattern, they will earn wide support and acclamation in international society. What is more, with Kosovo War as the turning point, the new interventionism of the USA and NATO has come into shape, and especially the support of the USA and NATO to “Kosovo Liberation Army”, an extremist faction, and their position on the later Chechen issue, will stimulate all kinds of separatism. From the regional perspective, both Pan-Islamism and Pan-Turkism have a ready market in Central Asian regions. One reason for this is that some countries studiously preach and hawk these thoughts in pursuit of their own interests, the other reason is that, to a great extent, these thoughts filled up the ideological vacuum during the post-Soviet era, and provided a certain ethnic and cultural identity and authenticity. In such great a setting, all kinds of religious extremism with a Islamic color and ethnic separatism became unprecedentedly active, from Balkan to Caucasia, from Central Asia to Afghanistan and Kashmir, that is, along the boundary between Islamic world and eastern camp. To sum up, the Islamic extremism and ethnic separatism active in this region have some common characteristics. First, without exception they lump religious, ethnic and political issues together so as to evoke widest international sympathy and support; second, the same time as they constantly advocate noble religious and political goals, without hesitation they take up kidnapping, assassination, explosion and other terrorist practice as their important means to achieve their goal; third, in order to acquire reliable fund resources, the area that they control has actually become a workshop of drugs. It is reported that opium produced in Afghanistan is three times the total amount produced in other areas in the world. In 1999 only, the opium that Afghanistan produced was as much as 4600 metric tons, which doubled the output in 1998. In China there are 10 ethnic groups that believe in Islam, with a population of about 18—20 million, and mainly live in the northwestern regions of China. If it was true that during the Cold War era, China could cut off the tie between Xinjiang and Central Asia by tight border blockage and other security measures, at present it is impossible at all: in ethnics, language and religion Xinjiang has a far-ranging connection with the Western Regions; the bi-directional flow of people, information and materials into and out of the Western Regions is not only the outcome of Xinjiang’s opening to the outside world, at the same time it is also the prerequisite of further development; it has been shown by proofs that Xinjiang has become the coveting object of extremist religious fraction, terrorists and drug dealers as well as the main target of infiltration of “Pan-Islamism” and “Pan-Turkism”. The security and stability of Xinjiang has aroused the unusual attention of Chinese academic community and the governmental departments. The second uncertain element in security that the west of China faces is related to the clash between India and Pakistan. Centered on the dispute of Kashmir, the clash between India and Pakistan has lasted for 50 odd years. Unlike the situations in the past, it is possible that Kashmir will trigger a general war between India and Pakistan. Owing to the disappearance of the Soviet Union, Pakistan has lost its weight in the global strategy of the USA. In the eyes of many Americans, the former strategic ally and a hero who ever resisted the southward expansion of the Soviet Union has degenerated into a sheer ruffian; in domestic politics, politicians are extremely corrupt, the servicemen are unbridled in their truculence and the extremist Islamism overspreads; in international politics, the country recklessly develops large-scale antipersonnel weapons, brazenly acts evilly in collusion with Islamic extremist forces, and gravely jeopardizes the regional stability and peace. On the contrary, India, a “spoiler” in the eyes of the Americans in the past, becomes the exemplary citizen: India is the largest “democratic country” in the world, so it can become the propellant of democracy; India puts forth no territorial claims on its neighbors, so it is the protector of the regional order in South Asia; even when India risks everyone''s condemnation to conduct nuclear tests, its action was considered as reasonable security demand, and Americans believe that, unlike North Korea and other countries which attempt to possess large-scale antipersonnel weapons, India is one of the most responsible. In South Asia, India is an absolute leading power. The reason that the balance with Pakistan had maintained for over half a century is that the big powers such as the USA and the Soviet Union condition each other. The collapse of the Soviet Union and especially the adjustment of the USA in its policy concerning South Asia have seriously broken the fragile balance in this region. It should be especially noted that, when talking about the so-called “China threat”, the USA and India found a common topic. This might cause India to have an illusion that it has acquired enough freedom and strength to act in South Asia, and can solve once and for all the dispute with Pakistan that has lasted for several decades. Unlike before, the dispute probably will lead to serious nuclear confrontation: in the dry tree, Pakistan may fight desperately, while India, holding all the trumps, may well catch the ball before the bound and perform a surgery on Pakistan. It seems that Kashmir has become the “one of the most perilous places in the world” as Clinton, the American president, puts it. To China, an India-Pakistan clash out of control will definitely brings tension and disorder in the western frontier of China, and even disastrous influence upon the economic development in the area. However, the real danger lies in that it is possible that China will be beguiled into an unexpected clash that it had not intended to involve in at all. III. The Western Regions and the Security of China’s Energy Source In recent 20 years, China is one of the countries with fastest economic growth. When we are proud for the economic achievements and enjoy the facility and convenience brought along by the economic development, we must attach enough attention to one of the important elements that support economic growth—the production and supply of petroleum, and the consequent security issue of energy source. It was in 1993 that China became a pure importing country of petroleum, but strained symptom of petroleum production and demand had perceptibly appeared before this. As early as in 1978, the petroleum output of China exceeded 100 million tons reached 104.05 million tons, while by 1990, the output only increased to 138.3 million tons, which means that the output only increased 34.25 million tons in 12 years, with an annual increase rate of no more than 2.7%. Compared with the annual increase rate of 11% before 1978 from 1952 to 1978, it was really a world of difference. There are various indications that the room of petroleum increase in China is very small. It is virtually impossible for the petroleum output of China to get onto a new stage unless there are big breakthroughs made in petroleum prospecting. In the meanwhile, the tempo of the opening and reform of China is continually accelerating, and due to the rapid economic development, the demand for petroleum increasingly swells up. In 1980, the petroleum consumption was 87.574 million tons, in 1985, 91.688 million tons, and in 1987, exceeded 100 million tons and reached 103.122 million tons. Throughout the 1990’s, the conflict between supply and demand had not been relieved, on the contrary, it became worse than ever. In the light of statistics, the output of crude oil of China in 1995 was 149.064 million tons, in 1996 and 1997 with a little increase the outputs were respectively 157.292 and 160.441 million tons, from 1998 however, were on the decrease in successive two years, in 1998, 160.256 million tons, in 1999, 158.786 million tons, and it seems that even at its best, the petroleum output in 2000 is hardly more than a return to a little over 160 million tons. In striking contrast with the fluctuation of petroleum output, the demand of Chinese economy for petroleum repeatedly broke the record. According to the statistics and forecast of IEA, the demand for petroleum in China in 1996 was 3.70 million barrel/day, 1997, 4.10 million barrel/day, 1998, 4.20 million barrel/day, and in 1999 and 2000 it will reach 4.40 million barrel/day and 4.60 million barrel/day respectively. Put it another way, the insufficiency between petroleum production and demand in China will be as high as 70 million tons. With the improvement of people’s living standard and the expansion of Chinese economic scale, and especially the acceleration of the structure readjustment in energy resource due to the increasing pressure of environmental protection, the demand for petroleum in China will further increase. According to the forecast of a report entitled “Studies of the Tendency and Countermeasures of China’s Petroleum Importation” issued by Economic Research Center of China State Commission of Economy and Trade, in 2005, the consumption of crude oil in China will reach 243 million tons, and in 2010 and 2015, 296 million tons and 360 millions respectively. If no large oil fields are discovered and the petroleum output remains at 160 or 170 million tons, the insufficiency of petroleum supply will be as large as 200 million tons. The estimation of IEA is more alarming: by 2020, China will daily import crude oil as more as 8 million barrels, or 400 million tons in a whole year. No matter how huge the discrepancy is in the estimates about the demand of petroleum of China in the forthcoming 20 years, a simple fact is that the enormous gap between supply and demand has to be made up by imported petroleum, while in the present world, the main source of the imported petroleum is nowhere but the Middle East, the Gulf region in particular. It is unnecessary for me to provide the already well-known figures about the reserves, output and export volume of petroleum in the Middle East, a glance at the figures in the following table will make one understand more than enough the role played by the petroleum from the Middle East in meeting China’s demand for petroleum. Unit: thousand ton Year Total importing amount From Middle East Percentage of Middle East % 1996 22616.90 11962.00 52.89 1997 35469.70 16781.60 47.31 1998 27322.60 16668.30 61.00 1999 36613.70 16903.90 46.16 Data source: International Petroleum Economics, Vol. 8, No. 2, March 20, 2000. PP.7. In view of the present, the influence of the petroleum from the Middle East upon the energy security of China is limited. This is because though since 1996 China has become a pure importing country of crude oil, the proportion of the imported petroleum in the total demand is not very high. At the same time, China annually exports some crude oil to the USA, Japan and some East Asian countries. Thus, on balance the proportion of the pure imported petroleum will be much lower. Take 1998 for instance, in total China imported 27322.90 thousand tons of crude oil, which was 13% of the total demand 210 million tons, 4.20 million barrels/day. In the same year, China exported 15600.70 thousand tons to Japan, the USA, South Korea, Singapore and others. On balance, the pure imported crude oil is 11722.20 thousand tons, taking 5.58% of the total demand. Suppose that it was impossible to import crude oil 16668.30 thousand tons from the Middle East for some reason, if the worst comes to the worst, China would stop exporting crude oil to Japan, the USA and others, thus the actual insufficiency would be only 1060 thousand tons. Obviously this would be far from enough to endanger China’s energy supply and economic security. Nevertheless, the alarm bell is ringing, and the petroleum from the Middle East will ultimately become the critical element in affecting China’s energy security. In 1999, the same time as the amount of imported crude oil considerably increased, the export amount decreased by a large margin only 7166.60 thousand tons. With the domestic oil price gradually coming in line with that in international market, this tendency will be increasingly strengthened. Suppose that the forecast by petroleum experts is accurate, then in the 20 years ahead, 50% of the demand in China will have to be provided by imported petroleum, of which at least half will be affirmatively from the Middle East. It should be pointed out that the policy-making institutions of China and the academic circles have fully recognized the significance of the petroleum from the Middle East in meeting China’s demand, and also realized harzardness of excessive reliance on the petroleum from a certain source, therefore, while strengthening the domestic prospecting and production, China takes the diversification of importing sources as its main strategy in risk-spreading. Statistically, Africa and some Southeast Asian countries are two additional importing regions besides the Middle East, however, owing to frequent chaos of wars, the booming local demand, or the limit in production increase and importing volume, it will be difficult for the two regions to exercise decisive influence upon China’s reliance on the petroleum from the Middle East. By this token, petroleum from Central Asia, and Caspian region in particular, should be given important position in China’s diversifying strategy of petroleum importing sources. In other words, to strengthen petroleum cooperation with Central Asia, Caucasian countries and Russian might be a means of potential significance. First, the high petroleum reserves and low exploration are advantageous to the cooperation between China and related countries. In light of the statistics, the proved petroleum reserves in Caspian Basin are as much as 15—29 billion barrels, which, though not a match for that in the Gulf region, is on a par with that of the USA 22 billion barrels and the oil fields in North Sea 17 billion barrels. During the period of the Soviet reign, the petroleum in Caspian region had not been fully developed, and the offshore oil fields in particular were subject to the restriction of technical conditions, while nearly all of the reserves in Azerbaijan, 30-40% of that in Kazakhstan and Tadzhikistan are under the sea. Second, the countries in Central Asia and Caucasia are particularly interested in international cooperation in petroleum field. After their independence, these countries are confronted by austere situations in economic development. To introduce foreign capital and strengthen international cooperation in the field of energy source is one of the few choices to cast off economic crisis. What is more, these countries are also faced with problems in national economic security: to get rid of the serious dependence on Russian in technologies, production and transportation, and make varieties of partnership in the cooperation of energy source have become the comparatively common policy tendency. The last, China and Central Asian countries are geographically connected, which greatly facilitates Sino-Central Asian cooperation in the field of energy source. Of course, at present there are more hindrances than conveniences in the cooperation, such as incessant religious and ethnic clashes, unstable politics, underdeveloped infrastructure and so on in Central Asia, whereas from a long-term point of view, cooperation in energy source with Central Asia ought to and surely will exercise considerable influence upon the security strategy of China’s Energy Source. IV. On China’s policy concerning the Western Regions The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resulting series of large-scale geopolitical shifts facilitate China’s establishment of a continental passage to Central and West Asia, South Asia and even the whole Europe by way of the traditional “Silk Road” and through Eurasian heartland. The Western Regions, a word that had sparked the imagination of the ancient literati and has been buried in oblivion for over 100 years, sailed into the view of the policy makers of China with a totally new connotation. With the accelerating development of China’s economy, and especially with the gradual unfolding of the strategy of developing the west of China, the ties with the countries in the Western Regions will be much closer, and China’s interests in this region will be represented on multilevels. Therefore, the academic community and the governmental departments should well notice such a diplomatic strategy: taking the whole Western Regions into consideration, accurately judge and take hold of the relationships status quo between China and the Western Regions and the future developing tendency. In view of the present situations, however, the issue of national security triggered by religious extremism and ethnic separatism and the issue of energy source security activated by petroleum supply are two keys to the diplomatic policy of China in the Western Regions in certain years in future. To the issue of national security caused by religious extremism and ethnic separatism, the diplomacy of China in the Western Regions should be unfolded from three levels. First, to get along well with the big countries such as Turkey, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan. These countries hold the balance in regional international relations, and at the same time in varying degrees related to the security and stability of the west of our country: Turkey is the main exiled base of the ethnic separatists of Xinjiang, India is the headquarters for Dalai Lama to instigate Tibetan independence, Saudi Arabia and Iran have wide influence in the Islamic world, while Kazakhstan is a country sharing the longest border with China and the largest Central Asian country with both characteristics of Islam and Turk. Developing relations with these countries should be the pivot of our diplomacy in the Western Regions. If these countries stick to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and fully understand the regional harmfulness of religious extremism and ethnic separatism, it will exercise positive influence upon the improvement and development of bilateral relations and the regional security and stability. To the regular communications of the cross-border ethnic groups, China bears no objection; to the constructive dialogue on the base of the principle of mutual equality and respect, China will be heartily welcome. Nevertheless, under any circumstance, China strongly opposes intervention into other country’s internal affairs with ethnic and religious issues as pretexts. Second, to strengthen security of cooperation with Russia and other Western Regional countries. It should be acknowledged that the difference in political systems and ideologies, the complexity of religious and ethnic composition, the imbalance of economic and social development and the conflicts of national interests in various fields severely impair mutual trust among China, Russia and other countries in the Western Regions, and also, it should be acknowledged that China, Russia and most countries in the Western Regions are the victims of religious extremism, ethnic separatism, terrorism and cross-border crimes, which, as a result, underlie the great possibility of cooperation of these countries in the field of security. China and Russia ought to be the active exponents and participants of the security cooperation. Without full understanding and cooperation with concerted efforts between China and Russia, the rampant growth of religious extremism, ethnic separatism and international terrorism cannot be effectively checked. In the meanwhile, China and Russia should also rally more Western Regional countries to join this. Only a larger scale of information exchange, personnel training and concerted efforts can the reticular connections of these international criminal organizations be cut off, especially their come-and-go in fund and personnel and trans-national traffic in ammunitions and drugs. At the recent summit conference of “the Shanghai Five”, great progress was made among China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tadzhikistan and Kyrgyzstan in united pounding on religious extremism, ethnic separatism and international terrorism. Just as Putin, the Russian President, put it, “the summit conference of China, Russia and Central Asian countries aiming to solve border problems becomes one in preventing international terrorism and promoting cooperative relations.” The historical change of “the Shanghai Five” indicates that more and more countries have realized the importance of cooperation in the field of security. Third, watch out for the strategic intentions of the western countries in this region. When China, Russia and other countries have discarded the Cold War mentality and are exploring new formats of international and regional security structure with a new perspective, the US-led western countries, however, still cling to bygone dreams and are infatuated with patching and modifying the decade-old Cold War machine: NATO and Japan-US alliance attempt to contain China and Russian strategically. In the west, NATO’s tentacles have extended to Caucasia and Central Asia; in the east, the same time to consolidate the alliance with Japan, the USA has attached greatest importance in strategic position to the amelioration and development of relations with Vietnam, and India in particular. Through Kosovo War and the pageant of the 50th NATO anniversary, the US-led western countries made an attempt to establish a new format of interventionism. We are more than willing to take their motives and goals as kind and noble, the outcome of Kosovo War and the double standard in human rights have shattered our fantasy and the severe reality lies in front of us. We would rather believe that this judgment is far from true: when the influence from the USA and NATO infiltrates into the depth of Central and South Asia and begins to harangue human rights, large-scale of chaos in Xinjiang and Tibet will not be very far. The second diplomatic key of China in the Western Regions is how to ensure the stability and security of petroleum supply. It must be made clear that the interests of China and that of the USA, Europe, Japan and other countries are exactly the same in obtaining petroleum supply from the Middle East, and the Gulf in particular. Consequently, China should not only give active support to but also try its best to involve in any suggestions and efforts in promoting the regional security and stability of the Middle East and the Gulf. It has to be pointed out, however, the opinions diverge greatly on issues like how to bring peace and stability to the Middle East and the Gulf and ensure the petroleum from the Middle East continuously flowing to the international market at an acceptable price. Therefore, first, China’s policy on the Middle East should focus on multilateral cooperation and opposition against irresponsible unilateral action. Second, multilevel cooperation with oil-producing countries in the Middle East should be substantially strengthened so as to realize the best combination of economic interests of petroleum supply and production. It should be kept in the mind of the policy-makers of China that a single tie of petroleum supply and demand, or high complementarities in trade will be insufficient to ensure the oil-producing countries to sell petroleum to China under any circumstance, and only full-scale cooperation in oil prospecting, production, transportation, refining and related petrochemical fields can maintain the security of oil supply from the Middle East at a higher level. Third, the Middle East and the Gulf in particular are one of the unstable regions, and the sea route from the Gulf to the Far East by way of the Indian Ocean, Malacca Strait and South China Sea is one of the unsafe routes. Thus, how to maintain the security and smoothness of the route should be taken into consideration by the policy-makers of China. A prospect or rather a reality to import most petroleum from the Middle East is a greater challenge to the security of China’s energy source. If another major potential supplying place is in Caspian region, it seems very pressing to make a policy concerning a larger range. In view of the present, China is not a powerful competitor in the development of Caspian oil: we have neither the favorable geographical position of Russia, nor the abundant financial resources of Americans and Europeans. Therefore, it is not easy to seize the first fruits. Nevertheless, China possesses potential advantages that other countries are in lack of: among those that can reach Caspian Sea without passing a third country, China is one with the rapidest growth in petroleum demand, and also one with fastest economic growth. For those countries in Caspian and Central Asia who wish to bring along economic and social development through developing resources, China, as an economic partner with promising prospect, is more appealing than those pure petroleum developers; what is more, the Asia-Pacific region that China faces is one with greatest potentials in the coming decades. By way of China, the Central Asian countries have not only found the most reliable buyer for their energy source and other resources, but also blazed the most convenient track for their economy to fuse into the Asia-Pacific region. If considering the potential capability of the second Eurasian continental bridge and the immense influence of China’s West Development, surely Central Asian countries will think over the role that China plays in the development of the energy source in Caspian Sea and Central Asia. In view of this, China does not have to worry about the present difficulties, or abandon our fundamental positions in order to seize the first fruits. For Chinese government as well as the enterprises, the two fundamental principles in the cooperation of energy source in the region of Caspian Sea and Central Asia are: far-reaching strategy and commercial feasibility. Notes: | ||
