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[Abstract] Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However, demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time......
本调查为中国社会科学院人口所中国政府和联合国人口基金合作的CPR/90/P06项目研究课题。调查涉及了上海、辽宁、广东、浙江、山东、河北、四川、陕西、江西贵州10个省市。调查内容主要包括孩子成本、效益以及妇女生育意愿等。数据资料由电子计算机汇总后出版《中国1992年家庭经济与生育10省市抽样调查资料》，对调查资料的分析文章见《中国家庭经......
[Abstract] A significant body of research on minority health shows that although Latino immigrants experience unexpectedly favorable outcomes in maternal and infant health, this advantage deteriorates with increased time of residence in the United States. This study evaluates the underlying assumptions of two competing hypotheses that e......
Abstract: Life expectancy continues to grow in most Western countries; however, a major remaining question is whether longer life expectancy will be associated with more or fewer life years spent with poor health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an......
Abstract： Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-......
[Abstract] This study examines whether children with a younger sibling whose birth was unintended experience larger declines in the quality of their home environment and larger increases in behavioral problems than children whose younger sibling’s birth was intended. We use data from the NLSY79 to estimate cross-lag regress......
Background: In this paper we study the long-term consequences of parental divorce in a comparative perspective. Special attention is paid to the heterogeneity of the consequences of divorce for children’s educational attainment by parental education. Objective: The study attempts to establish whether the parental breakup penalty for tertiary educa......
[Abstract] We give simple upper and lower bounds on life expectancy. In a life-table population, if e(0) is the life expectancy at birth, M is the median length of life, and e(M) is the expected remaining life at age M, then (M+e(M))/2÷e(0)÷M+e(M)/2. In general, for any age x, if e(x) is the expected remaining life at age x, and Г(x)......
[Abstract] The remarkable growth in life expectancy during the twentieth century inspired predictions of a future in which all people, not just a fortunate few, will live long lives ending at or near the maximum human life span. We show that increased longevity has been accompanied by less variation in ages at death, but survivors to th......
[Abstract] The separation of migrants from the family unit, as a result of labour migration, can have profound effects on family organization and the lives of family members. Using data from a 2006 survey of 1,680 married women from 56 villages in southern Mozambique, we examined the relationship between men's labour migration and the d......