The Role of the Military in the Arab Uprisings-中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所

Focused on the 2010-2011 Arab Uprisings, this book examines the role of the military in Tunisia and Libya, arguing that both armies contributed decisively to the outcome and form of the respective uprisings.

The book begins by contextualizing the uprisings, with both countries plagued by anti-democratic politics and unequal social and economic structures in the 2000s. Alongside this, the book explores the key actors and factors leading up to, during, and after the uprisings. Employing a comparative case study methodology and drawing from approaches in rational choice theory and institutionalism, the author argues that the tripartite configuration of energy capacity, military structure, and strength of protest led to dichotomous outcomes in the countries. Tunisia, where the military defected, was marked by a lack of energy wealth, apolitical military structure, and high level of protest, enabling a nonviolent transfer of power. In contrast, in Libya, where parts of the military remained loyal to Gaddafi’s regime, protests evolved into violent civil conflict.

Making use of expert and elite interviews obtained from fieldwork in Tunisia, as well as data from the research field, the book will appeal to specialists and students interested in international politics, military and security studies, and the MENA region.

CONTENTS

x List of Figures

xi List of Tables

xiii Acknowledgments

xiv List of Abbreviations

1 Introduction

4 Civil-Military Relations and Uprisings

5 How to Achieve Civilian Control of the Military?

13 The Military Power in the Middle East and North Africa

18 Protest Movements and Military Powers

21 Military Involvement in the Arab Uprisings:Pro-state and Pro-regime Behaviour

25 Notes

27 References

31 Methodology: Comparative Case Study

33 Case Selection: Depth or Breadth?

36 Sources: Elite/Expert Interviews and Secondary References

37 Outcomes: Defection and Split

39 Contributing Factors

45 Notes

46 References

49 PART 1

Tunisia

51 The Genesis of the Tunisian Uprisings

52 Tunisia: Politics and Military

61 The Prominent Causes of the Tunisian Uprisings

71 Notes

74 References

79 Actors and Factors in Tunisia

79 Actors

89 Factors

95 Notes

98 References

103 Tunisia: Energy, Military, and Protests: Energy Capacity,Military Structure, and the Strength of Protests

104 Energy Capacity

107 Military Structure

115 The Strength of Protests

118 Notes

121 References

125 PART 2

Libya

127 The Genesis of the Libyan Uprisings

128 Libya: Politics and Military

135 The Prominent Causes of the Libyan Uprisings

144 Notes

146 References

149 Actors and Factors in Libya

149 Actors

160 Factors

166 Notes

169 References

174 Libya: Energy, Military, and Protests: Energy Capacity,Military Structure, and the Strength of Protests

174 Energy Capacity

179 Military Structure

184 The Strength of Protests

191 Notes

194 References

201 Conclusion

201 The Positive Case: Tunisia

206 The Opposite Case: Libya

212 Appendix A: Chronology of the Tunisian Uprisings

216 Appendix B: Chronology of the Libyan Uprisings

224 Appendix C: Interview Process

227 Index